Audience Development

How Gas Prices Affect the Newsstand

While stopping to fill my gas tank (I’m from Connecticut—I pump my own gas) for the Thanksgiving holiday, I couldn’t believe the price—a “reasonable” $1.89 per gallon. While gas prices have been steadily declining nationwide from the huge spike this summer, I was still pleasantly surprised that it wasn’t going to cost me $50 to fill my tank.

CircMatters, the circulation newsletter, recently conducted a study that found single copy sales of celebrity magazines are inversely affected by gas prices. The results of his study beg the question: do lower per gallon gas prices mean the resurgence of single copy sales?

By comparing raw data from the Audit Bureau of Circulations (and Energy Information Administration for gas prices), CircMatters discovered that as gas prices marched upwards of $4 per gallon earlier, aggregate single copy sales of 11 celebrity titles analyzed were lower.

Newsstand sales for three titles showed a much stronger negative correlation with gas prices than the others: Soap Opera Digest (-0.59), Life & Style (-0.57), and In Touch (-0.46). On the other hand, People, with its positive correlation, was less subject to the adverse impact of the cost of gasoline than other titles.

New York Times Publisher on Whether There Will Be a Print Edition in 10 Years: ‘We Can’t Care’

Arthur Sulzberger, Jr., chairman and publisher of New York Times Company, delivered the keynote address yesterday at WebbyConnect, a three-day summit on the future of media, which was organized by the producers of the Webby Awards and held in Dana Point, California.

Sulzberger, sometimes referred to by the nickname "Pinch," gave an interesting answer to the “Will there be a print edition of the New York Times in 10 years?” question:

“Let's start with the fact that the heart of the answer must be we can't care. We do care; I care very much. But we must be where people want us for our information. It's the thought of cannibalizing yourself before somebody else cannibalizes you. So that's one answer."

He also articulated what Andrew Sullivan and others (I’ll put myself in there) have been preaching about the need to link to competitors:

"Embracing the hyperlink ethos of the Web to a degree not seen before, news organizations are becoming more comfortable linking to competitors acting in effect like aggregators. Fundamentally we are addressing a common desire for comprehensiveness. The desire of people to find the news and information that they want from their most trusted sources. The era of the walled garden is over."

More from the Webby blog here …

CM Changing to Audience Development

"If they just get the magazine, they're not as useful."
—Kelsey Voss, director, circulation and customer development, Ziff Davis Enterprise

"As we present our audience with a variety of products, the problem that we face is that not all of our customers want to receive every product we offer, and they don't necessarily have to subscribe to our print publication to be a member of our audience."
—Heidi Spangler, director of circulation and audience development, Questex Media

"Circulation-based metrics are irrelevant to proving magazine effectiveness. There is too much focus on ratebase rather than distribution. Every other medium deals with audience, we deal with circulation."
—Jack Kliger, former CEO, Hachette Filipacchi

"Until we can shift the conversation from circulation to audience, we cannot be on the same footing as the other media. Audience will become the common denominator of our media."
—Ed McCarrick, president and worldwide publisher, Time

These are just a few observations from some pretty heavy hitters. And what they're all referring to is audience measurement and development. It's a trend that, frankly, is in our face whether we like it or not, and one that we've written plenty about in the pages of CM—ultimately leading us to the decision to rebrand Circulation Management as Audience Development.

This was a difficult decision to make. CM, after all, is a decades-old brand with a fiercely loyal readership. But after months of careful deliberation, focus groups and research, we decided to pull the trigger.

Starting with the November issue, CM will be Audience Development. The Web site will also undergo its own re-engineering to reflect our new content strategy.

The magazine as you know it is not going away. In fact, you'll immediately recognize much of the same trend coverage. But along with a new redesign and rebranding, we're introducing new departments that will consistently address trends we've covered in the past with periodic, but increasing frequency: Online audience development and the technology that drives it; event audience development; integrated, multiplatform marketing; and database development and marketing, to name several.

In any case, you'll be hearing more about this as we move forward. Here, however, I'd be interested in hearing what you have to say on the matter. What's happening in your organization? How are you measuring, tracking, marketing to your community as a whole? Are we crazy to be changing CM's formula?

A Costly Palin Revolt at Us

Us Weekly’s Sarah Palin “Babies, Lies and Scandal” cover—as timely as it may have been—appears to have backfired.

As many as 10,000 people are said to have cancelled their subscriptions to the Wenner Media title last week after the issue hit newsstands, according to a report on MSNBC.com that cites a “well-placed” industry source. Some of those who supposedly called in their cancellations did so before even receiving their copy in the mail, the report said.

A Wenner spokesperson did not return a FOLIO: request for confirmation and/or comment.

If there’s any truth to this report, what does this mean for Us? According to the first half 2008 statement Wenner filed with the Audit Bureau of Circulations, the average yearly subscription to Us sells for $64.87. That, times 10,000 equals about $650,000 in lost revenue.

Of course, the actual figure depends on whether the reader signed up for a 12- or 18-month subscription and how far into a subscription they were before they cancelled.

It may turn out to be a bump in the road. Us reported 1.9 million in total average paid circulation during the first half—1.03 million from subscriptions, 869,364 from newsstand. Subscriptions were up about 14 percent from the same period last year.

Auto, Tech Mags Among Biggest Losers in First Half

RELATED: Consumer Magazines Take Huge Hit at Newsstand

With the economy down and gas prices skyrocketing, its no wonder that automotive and technology magazines saw some of the industry's biggest circulation declines over the first half, according to the Audit Bureau of Circulations consumer magazine FAS-FAX report out today.

Of all consumer magazines, some of the biggest decliners, in terms of total paid and verified circ, included Stock Car Racing (-27.3 percent), Car Audio and Electronics (-24.2 percent), Lowrider (-22.3 percent), Sport Compact Car (-26.2 percent) and Super Street (-23.8 percent). The hemorrhaging didn't end there (see chart below).

Autoweek and Car and Driver magazines were the bright spots with gains of 6.9 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively.

In the technology industry, computer heavyweights PC World and PC magazine saw respective declines of 17 percent and 8.8 percent. Apart from the industry's other circ decliners (see chart below), Condé Nast's Wired saw a 6.1 percent increase and Popular Mechanics a 0.8 increase in paid and verified circ.

Although consumers have seen some relief at the pump recently—with average gas prices dipping under $4 per gallon—it's unclear when these industries, and the economy, will rebound.

What's even more sad is magazines overall are taking a hit from these suffering markets. According to the Publishers Information Bureau's first half 2008 report, automotive ad pages for the period plunged 21.3 percent from the first half in 2007. The technology ad category was the second-largest decliner with ad pages falling 17.5 percent.

Automotive Circ Decliners

Technology Circ Decliners

Source: ABC